Implications of economix base model drivers#
Implications of economix base model series#

brief summaries of the SSP narratives, and.

Additional journal articles of the SSP special issue in Global Environmental Change describe the basic elements in further detail: In an extensive note available here we document some importantДЇactors of the SSPs. While we have aimed to represent a wide range of possible futures, this might not hold for every possible factor

Please note that the projections for the different SSPs are constructed such that they provide a consistent and plausible range for theД¬ombined set of variables. It is recommended to use the GDP projections by all teams to test the sensitivity of the results due to different GDP assumptions. In the selection of the вЂillustrativeвЂ™ cases, we have currently selected all SSPs from one team (OECD). The вЂillustrativeвЂ™ SSP should not be interpretedДЄs the central or representative case. In case users can only use one interpretation of the SSPs, for each SSP a single вЂillustrativeвЂ™ case has been selected. They differ however with respect to the employed methodology and outcomes.

Implications of economix base model drivers#

The GDP projections are based on harmonized assumptionsДЇor the interpretation of the SSP storylines in terms of the main drivers of economic growth. For GDP, three alternative interpretations of the SSPs by the teamsДЇrom the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)ДЄnd the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have been developed. A range of different modeling tools were used to develop quantifications of these storylines, includingДЇactors like population, economic development, land use and energy use.ДЇor each SSP a single population and urbanization scenario, developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)ДЄnd the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is provided. They served as the starting point for the identification of internallyД¬onsistent assumptions for the quantification of SSP elements. The narratives describe the main characteristics of the SSP future development pathways.

Implications of economix base model series#

The SSP quantifications build upon the collaborative effort between the IAV and IAM community, which have met in a series of meetings and identified a limited set Together, these two axes describe situations in which mitigation, adaptation and residual climate damage can be evaluated. ) and socio-economic conditions on the other. The framework is built around a matrix that combines climate forcing on one axis (as represented by the Representative Concentration Pathways: Information about the scenario process and the SSP framework can be found in Impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are part of a new framework that the climate change research community has adopted to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate

Scenarios (for an overview see Riahi et al, 2017). The SSP database aims at the documentation of quantitative projections of the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related Integrated Assessment Nine of these harmonized SSP IAM emissions projections were provided to the ScenarioMIP of CMIP6 (the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project 6) and will be part of the detailed assessment of possible future climate changes.ДЇor a citation of the data please see here.Д¬hanges since Release Version 1.1: Introduction

the projections for greenhouse gas emissions and other radiatively active substances were harmonized for the base year to historical inventories.

some scenarios were updated in order to reflect recent near-term trends (eg for emissions), and.

a set of new low SSP-based mitigation scenarios for a radiative forcing target of 1.9 W/m2 were added,.

extended reporting of existing SSP scenarios, covering additional new variables,.

In particular, developing countries appear to suffer the most from the climate-change impacts. We use a new dynamic, multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy to answer the following questions: Will climate-change impacts significantly affect growth and wealth distribution in the world? Should forecasts of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions be revised, once the climate-change impacts are taken into account? We found that, even though economic growth and emission paths do not change significantly at the global level, relevant differences exist at the regional and sectoral level. These impacts affect the economy in multiple and complex ways: changes in productivity, resource endowments, production and consumption patterns. Economic growth itself, however, is likely to be affected by climate-change impacts. Therefore, most climate-change studies are based on the models and scenarios of economic growth. Human-generated greenhouse gases depend on the level and emissions intensity of economic activities.